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Showing posts with the label probability

Markov Decision Processes 01: the basics

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Pt En In this post I will introduce Markov Decision Processes, a common tool used in Reinforcement Learning, a branch of Machine Learning. By the end of the post you will be able to make some sense of the figure above! I will couple the formal details, definitions and maths with an intuitive example that will accompany us throughout this post. In later posts we will make our example more complete and use other examples to explain other properties and characteristics of the MDPs. Let me introduce the context of the example: From a simplistic point of view, I only have two moods: " hungry " and " thirsty ". Thankfully, my parents taught me how to eat and how to drink, so that I can fulfill the needs I mentioned earlier. Of course that eating when I am hungry makes me happy, just as drinking when I am thirsty makes me happy! Not only that, but eating when I am hungry usually satisfies me, much like drinking when I am thirsty usually satisfies me. ...

Pocket maths: your verification code is 446267

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Pt En It has become quite common for online services to provide some form of 2-factor authentication when logging in from unknown devices. For example, whenever I try to access my Gmail account from a computer I never used, I get a text message with a one-time use 6-digit code. One day I was using that same service to log in into my email, when I noticed that one of the digits in the security code appeared twice, like the $1$ in $315641$. But when I read the other text messages from Google, I noticed that there were plenty more security codes with repeated digits than security codes that had six different digits. I found that weird and then decided to compute the probabilities of these events, just to check whether my intuition was tricking me or not... We are about to compute some probabilities regarding these $6$-digit codes - which I will start calling PINs for the sake of brevity - with the rather intuitive formula $$P(\text{some property}\ A) = \frac{\text{# P...

Pocket maths: the birthday bet

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Pt En This post has been translated here . Este artigo está traduzido aqui . &nbsp&nbsp- RGS join the mathspp mailing list